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Fisher Investments CEO & Forbes Columnist Releases Q4 Market Prediction

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Ken Fishers latest Forbes investment column explains what the midterm elections mean for stocks

Camas, WA (PRWEB) June 24, 2014

Fisher Investments CEO and Forbes columnist Ken Fisher discusses what 2014s midterm elections may mean for stocks in his latest column, Investors: Expect a Great Fourth Quarter. As the Forbes title suggests, Fisher believes the election is bullish. Why? The Midterm Election Year Fourth-Quarter Effect.

Fisher, a long-time student of the relationship between politics and stocks, explains that while returns are varied, fourth quarters of midterm-election years are overwhelmingly positive. Since 1925 the S&P 500 has risen in 19 of 22 midterm-election-year fourth quarters. Thats a whopping 86.4%. One of the other three wasnt negativebut 0.0%. Hence its been negative only 9.1% of fourth quarters. One was merely -5%. Only once was it down much, -16.4% way back in 1930during the crash.

In his Forbes investment column, Fisher explains why this happensbecause midterms usually result in gridlock, and investors are slow to realize. Since 1932, only FDR and George W. Bush have picked up seats in both the House and Senate in a midterm contestboth in their first terms. Otherwise, Presidents have lost relative power, which reduces the likelihood Congress can pass radical legislation interfering with property rightsa big positive for markets. But investors typically dont realize until late in the year that candidates have little chance of keeping their loud campaign promises.

This effect stretches beyond the fourth quarter. According to Fishers Forbes investment column, both of the next two quartersthe first and second of a Presidents third year (or seventh)have been positive 86.4% of the time, although with slightly lower average positive returns: 9.1% (first quarter) and 7.2% (second).

Fisher's Forbes investment column will be printed in the June 30, 2014 issue of Forbes, but the online version is currently available: http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenfisher/2014/06/18/investors-expect-a-great-fourth-quarter/

Fisher, CEO and Co-Chief Investment Officer at Fisher Investments, has written his monthly Forbes Portfolio Strategy column since 1984 and is the third-longest running columnist in the magazines over 90-year history. Ken Fishers Forbes investment columns can be accessed at http://www.forbes.com/sites/kenfisher/

About Fisher Investments

Founded in 1979, Fisher Investments is an independent, privately owned money management firm with tens of billions under management. Fisher Investments maintains two principal business units, Fisher Investments Institutional Group and Fisher Investments Private Client Group, which serve a global client base of diverse investors. Fisher Investments clients include over 100 large institutions and over 25,000 high net worth individuals. Founder and CEO Ken Fisher has written the Forbes Portfolio Strategy column for over 29 years, has written ten books on investing and personal finance (four of which are best sellers), and was recently named by Investment Advisor magazine as one of the 30 most influential industry individuals in the last 30 years (Thirty for Thirty, May 2010).

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